In a special webinar attended by more than 300 callers (including major media outlets such as USA Today, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg), NAHB this week released results of a newly commissioned poll showing the importance that voting Americans associate with homeownership and their continued support for government policies that encourage people to become home owners.  

As part of our continued efforts to elevate housing in the national political debate, this latest poll should help further cement the findings of other recent polls conducted by The New York Times and others in 2011, and add even more credence to the argument that today's lawmakers and political candidates must take a firm stand in support of homeownership if they want to connect with voters this election season and further the nation's economic recovery.  

The new NAHB poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Lake Research Partners from Jan. 2-5 of this year, and involved a telephone survey of 1,500 likely voters, including those in key political "swing areas" in the upcoming elections. Highlights of its findings include the fact that three out of four voters (both home owners and renters) believe it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote homeownership, and that this sentiment cuts across both regional and party lines, with 84% of Democrats, 71% of Republicans and 71% of Independents agreeing with it. Meanwhile, two-thirds of respondents said the federal government should help home buyers to afford a long-term or 30-year, fixed mortgage, and 73% said they oppose eliminating the mortgage interest deduction (MID). Not only that, but 68% would be less likely to vote for a congressional candidate who proposed to abolish the MID -- another sentiment that holds true across party lines. A majority of voters are also against proposals to reduce the MID, eliminate the deduction for interest paid on a second home, limit the deduction for those earning more than $250,000 per year, scale back the deduction for home owners with mortgages above $500,000 and do away with the deduction for home equity loans. Moreover, majorities across both parties agree that dealing with the mortgage and foreclosure crisis is key to stabilizing the economy. 

Summing up the results of our latest survey, pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners noted that "With the 2012 election season in full swing, candidates running for the White House and Congress would be wise to heed the will of the American voters, who have expressed broad support for government policies that encourage homeownership and who oppose efforts to make it more difficult to get a home loan as well as efforts to tamper with the mortgage interest deduction." NAHB has created a full line of resources that detail the poll results and help our members and HBAs use them at: www.nahb.org/2012pollresources. To hear a full replay of the webinar announcing the poll results, visit this link. Contact: Blake Smith (800-368-5242 x8583) 

Below is a brief overview of subjects covered in NAHB's Building in 2012: Economics, Advocacy and the Year Ahead webinar event. For more complete coverage, please see the next edition of Nation's Building News.

Advocacy Outlook

With the help of new polling results that strongly confirm the importance of homeownership to American voters, NAHB will continue leading the charge to educate Congress and candidates for political office about the necessity of supporting key national housing policies and solidifying housing's recovery in the months ahead, said Jim Tobin, Senior Vice President of NAHB's Government Affairs group, in a special NAHB forecast webinar this week. The webinar was a combined press conference/member update in which Tobin joined with NAHB CEO Jerry Howard and Chief Economist David Crowe to provide the 2012 forecast for housing and NAHB's advocacy agenda following a formal presentation of our latest poll results (see story above). Referring to the polling figures that were reported previous to his presentation, Tobin observed that, regardless of the partisan bickering that has prevailed in Congress in recent months, the one issue on which most Americans can agree no matter what political party they belong to is homeownership. Clearly, he said, "Homeownership is neither a Republican issue nor a Democrat issue, but an American issue," and we will continue taking that message forward along with a warning that elected officials who ignore the public's views on this matter do so at their own peril when it comes to the ballot box. "We are bracing for a year in which it's going to be difficult to break through on the important policy efforts that we are pushing on behalf of our members and consumers," he noted, but will continue our aggressive efforts toward re-opening the flow of credit to home builders and buyers, preserving the federal backstop for housing finance, and maintaining key housing incentives in the U.S. tax code. Though major housing finance and tax reform measures may make it to the floor of the House or Senate in the current legislative session, Tobin doubted that these would come to fruition in 2012. "For us," he said, "this means we will have more of an opportunity to hammer home the results of our poll in Congress and more fully solidify public opposition to reducing federal homeownership incentives."  NAHB will also be using the time left in the current Congress to continue working with the respective oversight agencies toward reducing instances of regulatory overreach that are stifling the fledgling housing and economic recovery, and to push for needed appraisal reform, changes to the requirements that have been proposed for a Qualified Residential Mortgage, and a resolution to the foreclosure crisis. 

Economic Outlook

While 2012 is starting with the same kind of optimism regarding housing and the economy that prevailed at the start of 2011, there are several reasons to believe that real improvement will actually materialize this year rather than fizzling out as it did in the past, said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe during our Feb. 11 webinar. In fact, he noted, we are already seeing improving GDP growth, stronger employment figures and slight gains in consumer confidence that bode well for a slow but relatively steady recovery in the months ahead.  Dave noted that NAHB's builder confidence gauge known as the HMI has gained seven points over the past three months, while over the same period, both housing starts and sales have charted consecutive gains and NAHB's list of improving housing markets has continued to grow. Meanwhile, household formations are finally starting to pick up after a big lull during the recession, today's very favorable mortgage rates aren't expected to creep up fast or far over the coming year, and price-to-income ratios are back to what they were prior to the boom years. Of course, all markets are local, and certain metros are already showing greater signs of growth than the national average, as demonstrated by the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index that has been expanding over the past several months to include a geographically and economically diverse set of metros (story below).  As for the economy, our Chief Economist is forecasting GDP growth in the neighborhood of 2.2% to 2.4% in 2012, followed by more robust growth in the longer-term. NAHB's forecast also anticipates single-family housing starts will gain approximately 17% in 2012 following what was almost certainly the worst year on record in 2011. By far the brightest part of the forecast is for rental apartments, which will enjoy greater demand over the coming year as more young people take their first steps up the housing ladder. This demand accounts for a more-than 50% gain in multifamily housing starts in 2011 from 2010. But remodeling is also in relatively good shape, with the dollar amount of remodeling projects on owner-occupied homes now actually beating the dollar amount of new-home construction taking place. The bottom line for 2012 is that, while demand for new homes won't "burst forward," it will slowly improve now that the overall housing market appears to have reached a bottom and started back on the path to recovery.

A full replay of the forecast webinar is available here; please note that the event begins with an overview of the results of NAHB's recent poll on homeownership, and that the file may take a few moments to download. If you encounter technical issues in viewing this webinar, please contact Paula Pagano (800-368-5242 x8057) 

In minutes released on Jan. 11, the American Lumber Standard Committee (ALSC) announced its Board of Review's decision NOT to approve reductions in the design values for all grades and sizes of visually-inspected Southern Pine lumber as proposed by the Southern Pine Inspection Bureau (SPIB) and based solely on the testing of 2x4, No. 2 lumber. As previously reported, NAHB Chairman-Elect Barry Rutenberg requested that the ALSC Board not approve any change to the existing design values until SPIB has completed testing of additional grades and sizes of Southern Pine lumber as required by ASTM D1990, the industry standard for establishing design values for visually graded lumber. 

The ALSC Board agreed that the proposed changes to the full spectrum of Southern Pine grades and sizes were not technically justified based on the limited testing that had been performed to date. Instead, the Board approved the proposed new values for only 2x4, No. 2 lumber and, in a supplemental ruling on Jan. 12, expanded that ruling to include all lower grades of that size. The Board also urged SPIB “to proceed with all deliberate haste” to complete the testing and analysis of additional grades and sizes of Southern Pine as required by ASTM D1990. Additionally, the Board recommended an effective date of June 1, 2012, for the new design values to “allow for their orderly implementation.”  This recommendation was a direct response to concerns voiced by NAHB that immediate approval and implementation of the proposed changes would cause chaos in the marketplace and result in an unjustified spike in lumber prices.

In all, the ALSC's decision is good news for NAHB members, who might otherwise be facing immediate implementation of a full range of new design values 25%-30% lower than the existing ones. Instead, the full matrix of In-Grade tests can be expected to take place this summer, after which changes to the other grades and sizes of Southern Pine lumber may once again be proposed by SPIB.

NAHB has created a special page that's dedicated to providing our members with needed information and resources regarding this issue at www.nahb.org/spdv. For additional information, please contact: Gary Ehrlich, 800-368-5242 x8545.

The number of housing markets showing measurable improvement nearly doubled in January with the addition of 40 new metros to the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), released Jan. 9. The IMI currently boasts 76 improving markets, up from 41 in December (5 dropped off the list this month), with 31 states and the District of Columbia represented by at least one entry. While relatively small metropolitan areas continue to dominate the list at this time, it's important to note that several major metros in diverse parts of the country joined the list for the first time in January -- including Dallas, Denver, Honolulu, Indianapolis, Nashville and Philadelphia. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe called this "an encouraging sign that gradually strengthening economic conditions are starting to take hold across a broader swath of America."  To be included on the IMI, a designated metro area must show improvement from its respective troughs in single-family housing permits, employment and house prices for at least six consecutive months. The five metros that dropped off the list this time around were: Anchorage, Alaska; Fort Wayne, Ind.; Canton, Ohio; Scranton, Pa.; and Charleston, W. Va. Markets added to the list in January are listed below; for a complete list of all 76 improving markets, please visit www.nahb.org/imi. Your contact for more information is Robert Denk (800-368-5242 x8698).

New to the list in January (listed alphabetically by state):

Florence, AL            Elkhart, IN                  Oklahoma City, OK
Tuscaloosa, AL      Indianapolis, IN         Tulsa, OK 
Fayetteville, AR       Lafayette, IN               Corvallis, OR
Denver, CO             Lake Charles, LA       Erie, PA
Greeley, CO            Worcester, MA            Philadelphia, PA
Bridgeport, CT        Grand Rapids, MI      Chattanooga, TN
New Haven, CT       Lansing, MI                Clarksville, TN
Cape Coral, FL       Monroe, MI                  Nashville, TN
Jacksonville, FL      Minneapolis, MN       College Station, TX
Punta Gorda, FL     Columbia, MO            Dallas, TX
Honolulu, HI            Joplin, MO                   Victoria, TX
Ames, IA                   Fargo, ND                   Madison, WI
Des Moines, IA        Manchester, NH
Dubuque, IA             Cincinnati, OH

Members of the NAHB Board of Directors and HBA Executive Officers, along with any interested members, are encouraged to register for an important upcoming webinar in which NAHB's outside Counsel and Board Parliamentarian will provide an overview of the various Proposed Bylaw Amendments and Policy Statements to be considered during the Board of Directors meeting that will be taking place on Friday, Feb. 10 during the IBS in Orlando. This webinar is intended to answer technical questions you may have about the proposals and to explain the process for considering Bylaw Amendments. Here's what you need to know:

WHO: NAHB Board Members, HBA Executive Officers and interested members

WHAT: Bylaw Amendments and Policy Statements Webinar

WHEN: 3:00 p.m. EST, Thursday, Jan. 19

HOW: Register at this link

Please note that details regarding participation in the webinar will be provided to participants upon registration for this event. Please also note that the Board's official discussion on proposed Bylaws will take place during its second session in Orlando, which happens on Friday, Feb. 10. The Board will also be meeting for a preliminary session from 3:00-5:00 p.m. on Thursday, Feb. 9. Please feel free to direct any questions or concerns about our webinar or the planned meeting times for NAHB's Board to boardtopics@nahb.org.  

Home builders and former NFL players are teaming up across the country to build and renovate homes for children or families in need and our honored veterans through an exciting new charitable program from NAHB and the NFL Players Association called Touchdown for Homes. The projects are being conducted in communities that have former NFL players chapters and NAHB-affiliated local home builders’ associations with community outreach programs. Recently completed projects include a renovation of part of the St. Ann’s Infant and Maternity Home in Washington, D.C., an upgrade of the AMIKids Infinity School in Chicago, and repairs to a transitional home for homeless families for the Decatur Cooperative Ministry near Atlanta (pictured at right).  Another such project was recently completed in Dallas, where former NFL players including six-time Pro Bowler Isiah Robertson and five-time Pro Bowler Jerry Norton helped build a home for an elderly woman and her family just in time for the holidays. That particular project was actually the 13th home constructed through the Dallas former NFL players chapter, whose original efforts inspired the nationwide Touchdown for Homes program. Home building industry companies including Lowe’s, Mohawk Flooring and Mid-South Building Supply have donated materials and volunteer workers to some of the projects, which range in value from $1,000 to nearly $100,000. For 2012, the groups in Washington, D.C. and Chicago are working on new projects focused on providing homes for wounded or homeless veterans. Other Touchdown for Homes projects are now in the planning stages for communities in Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Knoxville, Tenn. For more information, check out www.nahb.org/touchdownforhomes. Contact: Gwyn Donohue (800-368-5242 x8447)

Winners of the sixth annual NAHB/Builders Mutual Safety Award For Excellence (SAFE) will be honored at a ceremony on Tuesday, Feb. 7, from 5:00-7:00 p.m. at the Peabody Hotel in Orlando during the 2012 NAHB International Builders’ Show.  Chris Grundy, star and host of the DIY Network shows “DIY Dominator” and “Cool Tools,” will be returning this year to host the ceremony. SAFE awards recognize the achievements of builders and trade contractors who have developed and implemented high-quality construction safety programs, as well as government officials who have helped advance the cause of safety in the home building industry.

Congratulations to all of our 2011 SAFE Award winners, including:

South Carolina Home Builders Self Insurers Fund
Ryland Homes – Indianapolis Division
C.F. Evans Construction
Larry Freiert, Winchester Homes 
Home Builders Association of Metro Denver
Bettendorf Home Repair and Remodeling Inc.
Foursquare Builders LLC
Armstrong Builders LLC
Wayne Homes
Winchester Homes
The Mungo Companies
Airtron, Inc.
Comer Construction
Jim Carr, University of Arkansas Little Rock

For more information on the SAFE Awards or to RSVP to attend the ceremony, contact Linda Wade at 800-368-5242 x8300.

NAHB offices will be closed in accordance with the federal holiday honoring Martin Luther King, Jr., on Monday, Jan. 16. Please note that Nation's Building News will be published and distributed on the following Tuesday, Jan. 17. As always, thanks very much for your readership!