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NAHB logo National Association of Home Builders
September 16, 2011
David Crowe
NAHB Chief Economist
Eye on the Economy
Economic Recovery Unfolding at a Disappointing Pace

The pace of the economic recovery continues to disappoint.

There were mixed results in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which observes economic activity across the Fed’s 12 districts. Dallas, Kansas City, Minneapolis, San Francisco and St. Louis districts continued to expand, but at a modest pace, while Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, New York and Philadelphia districts were lackluster at best.

Employment growth has also been discouraging, with zero jobs added in August and fewer than 160,000 new jobs created since May — far below what is needed to drive unemployment down from its exceedingly high level. Residential construction employment has been the hardest hit, with almost 1.5 million jobs lost since the peak in 2006 and barely any movement since it reached its trough in October 2010.

Other data show mixed results for housing. Private residential construction spending fell in July, but the cost of construction decreased. The composite price index of residential building materials declined modestly in August.

Despite the recent poor economic news, the economies of small metropolitan areas that don’t register on a national scale are recovering, and the NAHB/First American Improving Market Index (IMI) has started identifying them. To appear on the index, the areas must show at least six months of improvement in single-family housing permits, employment and house prices.

The inaugural IMI found 12 metropolitan meeting those conservative criteria, which are heavily concentrated in energy-producing states such as Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Wyoming and Alaska. With house prices improving — as observed in three consecutive monthly increases in the Case-Shiller and Federal Housing Finance Agency national house price indexes — the IMI is expected to grow steadily over the balance of 2011.

Latest Postings
Producer Price Index Unchanged in August

The Producer Price Index was unchanged in August, with an increase in consumer food prices offsetting further declines in energy prices. Posted: Sept. 14

Home Buyer Tax Credit Statistics

An NAHB analysis of Internal Revenue Service data mapping where the home buyer tax credit was claimed indicates that the credit was not used evenly across the country. Posted: Sept. 9

Beige Book Shows Slow Growth, Heightened Uncertainty Across Fed Districts

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book indicates that the pace of recovery is running from modest to lackluster at best in its 12 districts. Posted: Sept. 9

Home Builder Employment Still Bouncing Along the Bottom

Despite 1.5 million home building jobs lost since the peak, the highest in the construction sector, NAHB anticipates only modest job gains until there is more considerable growth in new residential construction. Posted: Sept. 8

NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index

The inaugural NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index identifying U.S. metropolitan areas whose economies are recovering was released on Sept. 7. Posted: Sept. 7

The Employment Situation for August — Worse Than (Very Low) Expectations

August nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged from July, with the addition of 17,000 private sector jobs offset by an equal number of government job losses. Posted: Sept. 2

Private Residential Construction Turns Down in July

Private residential construction spending turned back down in July following three consecutive monthly increases. Posted: Sept. 1

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