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NAHB logo National Association of Home Builders
March 31, 2011
David Crowe
NAHB Chief Economist
Eye on the Economy
Poor Housing Data Continues

There has been little news to cheer about in the housing sector of late, including the most recent data.

Housing demand is weak, with new-home sales reaching a record low and existing home sales falling 10% in February. A steady increase in distressed home sales is putting downward pressure on prices, with both the Case-Shiller composite indexes and the Federal Housing Finance Agency index down again in January. Following the rise and fall associated with the home buyer tax credits, the trend in house prices has been relatively flat since the trough in early 2009.

Consumer confidence was down in March, with surveys from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board finding increasing pessimism about the future amidst concerns over rising inflation and the sustainability of recent economic and employment growth. 

Economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2010, but the potential for setbacks is large, raising the possibility of slower near term growth.
The Latest Postings
Consumers’ Outlook Increasingly Pessimistic
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index turned down in March, with consumers becoming increasingly pessimistic in their expectations for the economy and jobs growth. Posted: March 29
Case-Shiller House Price Index Down Again
The Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller house price index continued its steady decline of recent months, reflecting the trend in other key housing market indicators. Posted: March 29
Uneven Recovery in Home Sales Continues in February

The National Association of Realtors' pending homes sales index rose moderately in February, suggesting the likelihood of modest gains in existing home sales in March or April. Posted: March 28

Real GDP Growth – 2010 Fourth Quarter, Third Estimate: Revised Higher, But the Future Is Uncertain

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ final estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2010 was revised up to 3.1% — a welcome acceleration from third quarter growth of 2.6%. However, what happens in the next few quarters is increasingly uncertain. Posted: March 25

Amid the Gloom, Consumers’ View of Buying Conditions for Homes Improves
Consumers’ confidence in the economy may be flagging, but their buying attitudes indicate that they intend to keep spending, with a rising share perceiving home buying conditions as good. Posted: March 25
Dave Crowe Video on Today’s New Home Sales Numbers

NAHB Chief Economist Dave Crowe interprets the decline in new home sales in February. Posted: March 23

February New Home Sales at Record Low

February new home sales dropped to a new record low of 250,000 units, driven by consumer uncertainty, confusion over the direction of government policy and very tight credit standards. Posted: March 23

House Prices Fall Again in January
The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly purchase-only house price index fell further in January. The decline reflects the recent increase in sales of distressed homes sold at a discount. Posted: March 22
Existing Home Sales Fall Back in February

After three months of strong growth, existing home sales fell back in February. This was not unexpected as the recent strong growth was out of sync with other housing market indicators. Posted: March 21

Increasing Energy Prices Drive Further Increases in Consumer Prices

Consumer prices continued to rise in February, led by another jump in energy prices. Posted: March 17

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